Never before has a Lok Sabha election in Kerala attracted so much national attention. The State’s mandate is crucial for all three national political parties: the BJP, the Congress, and the CPI(M).
The BJP has been bending over backwards to make inroads into the south, the only region that has remained out of its grip. In the BJP’s Mission South, Kerala holds a particular significance as it is yet to win a Lok Sabha seat in the State. Desperate to breach the “last frontier”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kerala an unprecedented five times in the past four months and held rallies or roadshows wearing a mundu and daring to speak Malayalam.
Kerala is particularly critical to the Congress as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) received the most number of seats, 19 of 20, in 2019 even when nationally it had to contend with its second lowest tally of 91 (Congress 52) seats in history. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, contesting again from Wayanad, has also brought Kerala on the radar.
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As for the CPI(M), this is an existential election as it has already been marginalised in the other two States it dominated for a long time. It is imperative for the party, which won only one seat in Kerala in 2019, to do better, particularly when it is struggling to salvage its status as a national party. The CPI lost its national party status last year after failing to fulfil the criteria set by the Election Commission of India.
This election will not immediately impact its recognition, but A.K. Balan, CPI(M) central secretariat member, cautioned workers at a meeting that if the party did not garner enough votes, it would lose its national status and the symbol, forcing it to pick sundry election symbols like the octopus or pangolin in the future. Nationally, the CPI(M) and the CPI registered their worst electoral performance in the last election, with three and two seats respectively. This is hardly something to be proud of when the CPI enters its centenary year after its formation in 1925 in Kanpur.
INDIA bloc partners in a bitter contest
Kerala is also in the spotlight as the only State where the Congress and the Left, partners in the INDIA bloc, are involved in a bitter contest. Like in West Bengal, where they jointly oppose the Trinamool Congress, another INDIA constituent, the fight between the two parties in Kerala has thrown up several incongruities.
Rahul, whose primary opponent is the CPI’s Annie Raja in Wayanad, initially refrained from attacking the Left, calling it part of the family in his speeches. But following pressure from his State leadership, he changed tack the next day. Firing a direct salvo, Rahul wondered why Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was not in jail despite being investigated by Central agencies, unlike Chief Ministers such as Arvind Kejriwal or Hemant Soren. He reiterated the United Democratic Front’s (UDF) refrain about the alleged clandestine deal between the BJP and the CPI(M). “Why does Vijayan attack me and keep silent about Modi?” he asked even when the thrust of INDIA’s election campaign was about the alleged misuse of Central agencies against opposition leaders.
Vijayan also figured in INDIA’s national election poster, which proudly presents its several Chief Ministers. Responding to Rahul, Vijayan said: “Don’t threaten me with jail. I couldn’t be cowed even by your formidable grandmother, who imprisoned me for one and a half years during the Emergency.”
LDF candidate K.K. Shailaja at the culmination of public campaigning in Vadakara on April 24. | Photo Credit: By Special Arrangement
CPI(M) leaders such as Sitaram Yechury, Prakash Karat, and Brinda Karat slammed Rahul for his comments against Vijayan. The exchange was helpful for Modi, who said the next day in Maharashtra that Vijayan was attacking Rahul with words that even he never used.
The CPI(M) accused the Congress of being the BJP’s B team following “soft-Hindutva”. Vijayan’s primary campaign theme is the Congress’ alleged soft-pedalling on issues like the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and its leaders making a beeline for the saffron camp. No party flags were waved at Rahul’s campaign in Wayanad, presumably to prevent the BJP from portraying the Indian Union Muslim League’s green flags as Pakistan’s ensign like it did last time. The CPI(M) portrayed this as bowing to Hindutva. The Congress lamented the Marxist charge as a ploy to woo Muslim voters. Muslims form 27 per cent of the State’s population.
Not to be outdone, the BJP has accused the Congress and the Left of being involved in a fake fight, having gusti (fisticuffs) in Kerala and dosti (friendship) in Delhi. Modi harped on this in his rallies in Kerala.
Highlights
- The State’s mandate is crucial for all three national political parties: the BJP, the Congress, and the CPI(M). The BJP is yet to win a Lok Sabha seat in the State.
- Kerala is important to the Congress because the UPA won 19 of 20 seats in 2019, despite having the second lowest total of 91 (Congress 52) seats in history.
- It is imperative for the CPI(M), which won only one seat in Kerala in 2019, to do better, particularly when it is struggling to salvage its status as a national party.
Election outcomes
Notwithstanding the charges and countercharges of anthardhara (secret deals), contests in every constituency have been exceptionally heated from the beginning, keeping pace with the sweltering summer.
The three most eagerly awaited election outcomes in Kerala are the following.
1. Will the UDF’s domination in Lok Sabha elections continue? Even when Kerala voted the UDF and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) alternatively to power regularly in the State, it preferred the former for the Lok Sabha. The pattern has been visible in 8 of the 11 Lok Sabha elections held since 1980. Even when elections were held close to each other, Kerala voted for the UDF in the Lok Sabha and the LDF in the Assembly. The latest instance of this “dual voting” pattern was when the LDF was voted back to power in the 2021 Assembly election for a second term, the first such instance, barely two years after the UDF’s landslide (19-1) in the Lok Sabha.
On the surface, no visible upset appears to be developing this time either even though the UDF’s claim of a clean sweep seems far-fetched. Its 2019 landslide was at the peak of its campaign against women’s entry into the Sabarimala shrine, which helped it win conservative Hindu hearts substantially. There was also hope of the Congress returning to power in Delhi, and Rahul’s candidature from Kerala consolidated minority votes. No such factors are visible now.
2. Will the LDF improve on its performance in 2019? It may, to some extent, since a pro-UDF wave is not visible. However, the LDF is hampered most by the perceived anti-incumbency mood in the State. The economic crisis has led to a backlog of welfare pension payments; it has also not been able to provide an alternative narrative to a highly critical media.
A 20-year-old student’s death in February in a veterinary college hostel due to ragging, in which the accused were alleged activists of the pro-CPI(M) Students Federation of India, has become an electoral issue. The explosion of a country bomb in Kannur, killing one and injuring three, has also put the CPI(M) on the defensive. The blast occurred in early April while the bomb was being put together, and the dead and injured allegedly were linked to the CPI(M).
3. Will the BJP break its Kerala jinx? In 2019, the saffron party’s vote share in the State was 12.93 per cent, and it managed to come second in one constituency—Thiruvananthapuram. This time its focus is on five “A Class seats”, where it got between 20 and 31 per cent votes last time.
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However, despite the Prime Minister himself leading the campaign and claiming that the number of seats in the State would touch double digits, the BJP’s chances of winning a seat look slim. Later, Prakash Javadekar, the BJP’s Kerala Prabhari, reduced the claim to five seats. Its frantic attempts to woo the Christian community (17 per cent of the population) have not made much headway but for some interest shown by a few church leaders. However, the State’s capital, Thiruvananthapuram, is witnessing a keen contest this time between the UDF’s star candidate, Shashi Tharoor, aiming for a fourth consecutive win and the BJP’s debutant Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology.
Key contests
Thiruvananthapuram
Rajeev Chandrasekhar visiting a fish market in Kovalam as part of the election campaign on April 19. | Photo Credit: ANI
This is the only seat where the BJP’s vote share crossed 30 per cent in the past two elections and where the Congress’ star candidate and former diplomat Shashi Tharoor has completed a hat-trick. The BJP has fielded Rajeev Chandrasekhar, the technologist-cum-entrepreneur-cum-politician, who poses a challenge to Tharoor. The contest has become keener for the striking similarities between the opponents rather than their differences. Both crorepati candidates were born to Malayali upwardly mobile migrant Nair families rooted in central Kerala districts. They were born, raised, and educated abroad and entered politics after excelling in their non-political careers. Both are articulate, but speak broken Malayalam and have personal appeal among the same sections: the young, urban, educated, aspirational, upper and middle classes/castes and the apolitical. The commonalities are bound to split the votes in these sections over which Tharoor had a near monopoly.
The third candidate, the CPI’s veteran Pannyan Raveendran, is just the opposite. Born in a lower class/caste family, he is a Class VI dropout and a hardcore communist from his young days. He is a former State secretary of the CPI and has won from here. Raveendran’s strengths are his honesty, simplicity, and friendliness.
Wayanad
LDF candidate and CPI National leader Anni Raja along with tea estate workers at Chundale in Wayanad district during her election campaign on April 8. | Photo Credit: By Special Arrangement
A traditional UDF bastion, it has gained popularity because of Rahul Gandhi’s candidature. Unlike the previous election, when the LDF fielded a lightweight, the CPI’s national executive member Annie Raja is taking on Rahul. Left leaders have repeatedly questioned Rahul’s decision to contest from Wayanad instead of fighting the BJP in its north Indian bastions.
The BJP has fielded a reluctant K. Surendran, its State president, unlike in 2019 when the seat was allotted to its minor ally, the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS). Immediately after entering the fray, Surendran tried to bring a communal element into the campaign by promising to rename the local town Sulthan Bathery (once Tipu Sultan’s armoury) Ganapativattom after the local Ganesh temple, claiming it was the original name.
Though Rahul’s record margin of 4.32 lakh in 2019 looks challenging to replicate, his victory seems certain. However, the Congress and its chief ally, the Indian Union Muslim League, were found on the back foot over the flag issue.
Thrissur
NDA candidate Suresh Gopi greeting people at Mukkattukara in Thrissur. | Photo Credit: K.K. NAJEEB
Modi visited this constituency twice in a fortnight in January. If his first trip was to address the BJP’s women’s rally, the second was to attend the wedding of actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi’s daughter. The real purpose of both visits was to bolster Gopi’s electoral prospects. Although there was much hype in 2019 also, when Gopi first contested from here, he was pushed behind Congress and CPI candidates, but the BJP vote share rose from 11.15 per cent to 29.19 per cent. Gopi lost again in the 2021 Assembly election. This time, he faces a stiffer challenge from the Congress’ K. Muraleedharan and the CPI’s V.S. Sunil Kumar.
Alappuzha
A.M. Ariff campaigning in Alappuzha constituency. A former red bastion on the coast, Alappuzha was the only seat the CPI(M) won in 2019. | Photo Credit: By Special Arrangement
A former red bastion on the coast, it was the only seat the CPI(M) won in 2019. The contest here assumes significance for two reasons. For the Left, retaining its lone seat, which A.M. Ariff won, is a matter of prestige. It is the land of the legendary Punnapra Vayalar uprising of 1946. The UDF, which has pledged to win the seat to humble the Left, has fielded Rahul’s confidant and Congress general secretary K.C. Venugopal, who won from here in 2014.
Pathanamthitta
BJP candidate Anil Antony campaign for vote at Ranni in Pathanamthitta. | Photo Credit: Leju Kamal
It is on the radar because of the BJP candidate Anil K. Antony, the son of former Defence Minister A.K. Antony. Anil changed his political allegiance last April while heading the Congress party’s IT cell. Pathanamthitta is also among the BJP’s five “A Grade” constituencies. In 2019, the party’s State president, K. Surendran, almost doubled its vote share to nearly 30 per cent from the previous election. However, despite the emotional campaign he led against women’s entry to the Sabarimala temple, Surendran finished third in the constituency where the shrine is situated. Anil’s opponents are sitting MP Anto Antony of the Congress and former State Finance Minister Thomas Isaac of the CPI(M).
M.G. Radhakrishnan, a senior journalist based in Thiruvananthapuram, has worked with various print and electronic media organisations.
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